Creator sentiment
9 creators · 9 views · past 7 days
Updated October 20, 2026
The bull case
- +A SpaceX-Tesla merger is likely, with prediction markets pricing ~60% odds by spring 2027, and Tesla shareholders would receive a premium.
- +Tesla already has co-ownership ties to SpaceX through its xAI stake converted to SpaceX shares.
- +Play on robotics, one of the key AI infrastructure layers.
- +Tesla's Terafab project in Texas depends on political outcomes, and the creator believes a Republican win (Paxton) would be beneficial for data centers and Tesla's expansion.
- +Elon Musk's political involvement and support for Paxton could help secure favorable conditions for Tesla's projects.
The bear case
- −Trades at ~13x sales versus 0.5-1x for a typical car business, and ~400x last year's earnings, pricing in future robotaxi and robot businesses that barely exist yet.
- −Even with overly aggressive 10-year growth and margin assumptions, the middle intrinsic value estimate (~$370) is below the current ~$380 price.
- −Returns on capital fell to 3% last year and profit margins compressed to 3.7%, while the stock has gone nowhere for five years despite revenue doubling.
- −The Roadster event was a 'circus performance' with stunts that misrepresented the car's actual capabilities, such as using magnets instead of fan suction.
- −Tesla has repeatedly delayed the Roadster and made impossible performance promises, damaging its credibility.
- −The reservation refund process is difficult and not fully refundable, raising concerns about customer treatment.
- −Tesla trades at about 14.6x sales, well above its 3-year average of 11x and the broader market, which is hard to justify given cyclical, unpredictable auto revenue.
- −As a long-time shareholder, he personally thinks the stock is expensive at current levels and wouldn't find the valuation attractive until it trades below $200 per share.
What StockTubers recently said
📹 Tesla SpaceX Merger: Elon’s Secret $4,000,000,000,000 Move
Trades at ~13x sales versus 0.5-1x for a typical car business, and ~400x last year's earnings, pricing in future robotaxi and robot businesses that barely exist yet. · Even with overly aggressive 10-year growth and margin assumptions, the middle intrinsic value estimate (~$370) is below the current ~$380 price. · Returns on capital fell to 3% last year and profit margins compressed to 3.7%, while the stock has gone nowhere for five years despite revenue doubling.
📹 AMAZON'S BEST DAY SINCE AUGUST, SEMIS BREAK THE RED STREAK | MARKET CLOSE
SpaceX/Catrini rumors of a $420/share offer are providing a bid, but credibility is uncertain.
📹 Elon Says $100T Is LOW: How SPCX Compute Could Break Every Model 🚀
A SpaceX-Tesla merger is likely, with prediction markets pricing ~60% odds by spring 2027, and Tesla shareholders would receive a premium. · Tesla already has co-ownership ties to SpaceX through its xAI stake converted to SpaceX shares.
